What is Monte Carlo simulation for project estimation?

Monte Carlo simulation is a probabilistic technique that runs hundreds of simulations using random sampling to predict project completion dates with confidence intervals, providing more realistic estimates than single-point predictions.

How accurate is Monte Carlo project estimation?

Monte Carlo simulations typically provide 85-95% accuracy when based on good historical data, significantly outperforming traditional estimation methods.

Is this Monte Carlo estimation tool free?

Yes, this Monte Carlo project estimation tool is completely free to use with no registration required. All calculations are done in your browser.

Project Estimation

Probabilistic Forecasting with Monte Carlo Simulations

Estimation Method i

Throughput Estimates i

Pessimistic i

Optimistic i

Most Likely i

Leave empty for uniform distribution

Project Scope i

Min Stories i

Max Stories i

Split Factor Min i

Split Factor Max

Split factor accounts for stories discovered during development

Team Capacity i

Team Allocation (%) i

Percentage of team capacity dedicated to this work

Project Risks (Optional) i

Ready to Forecast

Configure your parameters and click "Generate Forecast"

This tool runs 500 Monte Carlo simulations using a triangular distribution, which acknowledges that extreme values (very low or very high throughput) are less likely than values near your "most likely" estimate, creating more realistic project completion timelines with confidence intervals.

Ready to Forecast

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